Debate of NBA Draft: Who's No. 1?

Kansas State's Michael Beasley and Memphis' Derrick Rose are poised be the top two picks in the NBA Draft. But who will be No. 1 is up for debate.

Frank Martin and John Calipari can respectfully agree to disagree on which dynamic young player should be the top pick in next month's NBA Draft: Kansas State's Michael Beasley or Memphis' Derrick Rose.

Understandably, both coaches are a bit biased in this escalating debate.

But Calipari, the University of Memphis' coach, and Kansas State's Martin hold mutual admiration of the franchise-altering impact the other's prized pupil could have in the NBA.

Calipari, who spent three seasons coaching the New Jersey Nets, calls Beasley ``a translator.''

''With my background, I don't care how good you are in college,'' Calipari said. ``I want to know what transfers -- what translates. Does what you do here translate up there to the NBA? With Mike, oh yeah. I'm telling you, the kid is good.''

Martin believes Rose can be a once-in-a-generation type of floor leader.

''Derrick Rose is special,'' Martin said. ``When you've got a point guard who's got what he's got, you're playing for championships.''

The stakes will be just as high at the other end of the spectrum Tuesday in Secaucus, N.J., when the Heat will be among 14 teams at the draft lottery looking for ping-pong balls to bounce the right way and put two lucky teams in position to land one of these top phenoms.

There is Beasley, a 6-10 forward who averaged 26.2 points, 12.4 rebounds and rewrote the Big 12 record books with one dominant stroke of a season at Kansas State. There is Rose, an explosive 6-3 guard who led Memphis to the title game in his lone college season and has drawn early comparisons to elite NBA point guards Jason Kidd, Deron Williams and Chris Paul.

And then there are the rest of the projected lottery prospects, which include Arizona guard Jerryd Bayless, Southern Cal guard O.J. Mayo and Stanford center Brooke Lopez.

The Heat enters the random-but-weighted lottery essentially in pole position. After finishing an NBA-worst 15-67, tying the franchise record for futility, the Heat has a 25 percent chance to land the No. 1 pick and a 46.5 shot at a top-two selection. Under NBA rules, Miami is guaranteed to fall no lower than fourth in the selection order for the June 26 draft in New York.

But there is another set of numbers that is disturbing to the Heat. Only twice in 14 years under the current format has the team with the worst record won the lottery's top pick.

INTERCHANGEABLE

Fortunately, many NBA and college executives, coaches and analysts said the value of this year's lottery grand prize and top consolation parting gift might be interchangeable.

It is not often that two clear-cut franchise-changers headline a draft class, but it has happened two seasons in a row. The energy surrounding Beasley and Rose -- or Rose and Beasley -- is just as strong as the hype entering last year's draft, when center Greg Oden and forward Kevin Durant, the NBA's Rookie of the Year, went first and second to Portland and Seattle, respectively.

''The top two [prospects] this year would be somewhat comparable to last year, which was considered extraordinary,'' said Sporting News senior college basketball writer Mike DeCourcy, who wrote Legends of College Basketball, a book that ranks the top 100 players in history. ``I don't think these two are going to have to take a backseat to many one-twos at all.''

That is considered extremely lofty praise when looking back on recent high-lottery pairings, including Dwight Howard and Emeka Okafor in 2004, LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony in 2003 [although Darko Milicic was drafted second], Allen Iverson and Marcus Camby in 1996 and Shaquille O'Neal and Alonzo Mourning in 1992, among others.

Heat general manager Randy Pfund is among a group of executives with lottery teams who believe Rose and Beasley initially offer more of a No. 1 and No. 1-A option on the board rather than distinguished prospects with a clear amount of separation.

''For most people, that's fairly accurate, that's the early line,'' said Pfund, who estimates the Heat's candidate pool with a top-four pick includes as many as eight prospects beyond Rose and Beasley. ``With one of those two guys, you're going to get a player who will have an immediate and tremendous impact.''

NO FAVORITE

Pfund would not say which of the two the Heat favors at this point if it acquired the top pick. For now, his daydreams alternate with Beasley posting up or Rose running the point in transition alongside Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion and Dorell Wright.

If there was any difference that could be detected in Pfund's recent breakdown of Rose and Beasley -- any hint which one he would prefer -- it was difficult to discern.

He spoke in waves about Beasley's ability to score and rebound in a potential inside-outside tandem with Wade.

''That image is a nice one,'' Pfund said.

``[Beasley] can be a very nice guy for Dwyane to drive and dish to, or he can post and find Dwyane.''

But Pfund, at times, could barely find the words when trying to describe the potential of a Rose-Wade backcourt pairing, specifically with the Heat's need for a point guard this offseason.

''Rose, to me, in the open court, for me, the possibilities for a player with his quickness, his size, his strength, boy, it's like having a quarterback that can do it all,'' Pfund said. ``The image I have of Rose, with the ball in his hands, pushing it up the court with Wade, Dorell and Marion, that creates a whole new option for you.''

So which option do you take with the top pick? Beasley, a 6-10 forward and first-team All-American who led the nation in rebounding and was third in scoring? Or Rose, a third-team All-American with an upside the size of Mount Everest?

It is still too difficult a call, some say.

But that perception could change once more poking and prodding is done at the NBA's predraft camp this month and subsequent individual team workouts next month.

''A lot of teams will be going through that debate to get into that first position,'' said Portland Trail Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard, whose team wrestled with a similar decision last year before selecting Oden over Durant. ``It's a little bit of a unique phenomenon -- two players, back to back, looked at heavily for the top two spots. There wasn't a day between the lottery and the actual draft that there weren't media involvement and interviews. You can really, really drill down very deep on two players.''

BANKING ON ROSE

DeCourcy believes Rose will emerge.

''The first thing you want to do is draft a star -- a guy who is going to play in multiple All-Star games,'' he said. ``You want a guy to change the talent level of your team. Rose and Beasley fit that. The difference is, I believe Rose is the most physically gifted point guard to ever play the game. I think he's the most complete athletic package we've ever had.''


source : NBA.com